For the 2013 statistics the FBI changed its outdated parameters of rape-then defined as the forcible вЂњcarnal knowledge of a femaleвЂќ-to a more modern definition structured around consent, rather than force. Violent crime did not decrease across the board in 2018, however, and one category is in the midst of a slow but persistent six-year upward swing: rape. вЂњThere is an avalanche of research right now in criminology pointing in that direction, that declining legitimacy is associated with increases in crime.вЂќ Predatory violence might increase, for example, because offenders believe victims and witnesses will not contact the police to report incidents. вЂњThe uptick in homicide was more likely associated with a crisis in police legitimacy: People, especially in disadvantaged minority communities, drawing even further back from the police,вЂќ Rosenfeld told The Marshall Project. A study he co-authored in March found вЂњno evidenceвЂќ that arrest rates had any effect on homicide rates in the cities and time period examined, a correlation one would expect to see if a dip in proactive policing was really to blame. Louis criminologist Richard Rosenfeld, who authored several studies on the spike, has found that something akin to a вЂњFerguson EffectвЂќ likely did contribute to increased murder rates in a handful of cities, like Chicago and Baltimore, but that the вЂњdemoralized copsвЂќ explanation was unsupported by the data. Then-FBI director James Comey described it as вЂњa chill wind blowing through American law enforcement.вЂќ That spike also fueled the emergence of the so-called вЂњFerguson EffectвЂќ hypothesis, that the Black Lives Matter protest movement had prompted demoralized police officers to cut back on proactive policing strategies in response to scrutiny from the general public. Then-Attorney General Jeff Sessions said in early 2017 that his вЂњbest judgmentвЂќ was that these data represented a вЂњdangerous permanent trend.вЂќ Some opponents of criminal justice reform seized on the two-year uptick as proof of what they called a new cresting crime wave. Mostly fueled by a spike in homicides in a handful of large cities, the nationвЂ™s violent crime rate increased by 3.3 percent in 2015 and 3.5 percent in 2016 before dropping. вЂњItвЂ™s a reminder that two years isnвЂ™t a trend, and two years doesnвЂ™t break a trend.вЂќ вЂњThat's a really good sign that the long term trend towards greater safety is not in fact reversed, and that weвЂ™re moving past whatever happened in 20,вЂќ said Grawert, senior counsel with the Brennan Center for Justice, a research institute at New York UniversityвЂ™s School of Law. The overall numbers, recorded by police departments across the country and compiled annually by the FBI, are welcome news for crime researchers like Ames Grawert, who closely monitored an uptick in violence in 20.

Nyc crime rates chart